Severe drought has gripped Brazoria County, putting Friendswood in the driest zone in the Houston metro area.

Eric Berger, a meteorologist and author at Space City Weather, reported Oct. 19 that the majority of Brazoria County has sunk into severe drought after a dry stretch dating to mid-August. Areas south and east of Houston have received well below 50 percent of normal rainfall over the past 60 days, Berger wrote, and the last 30 days "have seen almost nothing."

The rest of the metro Houston area, including Harris County communities such as Webster, Seabrook, Nassau Bay and Clear Lake Shores, has reached moderate drought levels.

Berger said he fears conditions will worsen. "With virtually no rain expected over at least the next 10 days, I fear we could see more of Houston reach 'severe' drought status," he wrote. The earliest chance for meaningful rain, he added, may not arrive until around Halloween or just after.

Drought by the numbers

The Houston Chronicle reported Oct. 20 that the U.S. Drought Monitor's Oct. 13 map showed about 97 percent of Southeast Texas in drought or pre-drought conditions. Nearly 80 percent sat at moderate drought, with about 19 percent at severe drought. Just one week earlier, about 66 percent of the region was in drought or pre-drought conditions, and none was classified as severe.

The change was rapid.

Soil moisture data underscores the deficit. The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI), which estimates how much rain is needed to saturate soil, showed values of 400 to 600 across most Houston-area counties as of Oct. 19, according to the Chronicle. That translates to roughly 4 to 6 inches of rain needed to fully wet the ground.

Burn bans in effect

Both Brazoria and Harris counties are under active burn bans. Brazoria County's ban took effect Sept. 14, and Harris County's followed Sept. 17, according to Texas A&M Forest Service data. Outdoor burning of trash, brush, leaves and open campfires is prohibited in both counties until commissioners courts lift the orders.

Violating a burn ban is a Class C misdemeanor under Texas law, punishable by a fine of up to $500. Propane and LP-gas grills are generally allowed.

What's ahead

An El Niño weather pattern is supposed to bring generally wetter conditions across Texas during the winter months, Berger noted. The region will likely need that relief given the state of its soils heading into November.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecast for Oct. 24–28 shows below-normal rainfall near and east of Houston, even as much of the rest of the state expects above-normal precipitation, according to the Chronicle.

Berger wrote that the next time to hope for rain across the Houston region is around or just after Halloween.