The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has not produced a single hurricane, and Webster-based meteorologist Eric Berger says it likely won't before Sept. 17.
That would break a record stretching back more than 80 years.
The previous latest date for a first Atlantic hurricane since aircraft reconnaissance began in 1944 is Sept. 11, set by Hurricane Gustav in 2002 and matched by Hurricane Humberto in 2013. Berger wrote on Tuesday, Sept. 8, on Space City Weather that the 2026 season will not see a hurricane by that date, guaranteeing a new record.
Going back to 1851, the all-time latest first hurricane came Sept. 17, 1941, when a storm formed in the Gulf of Mexico and struck near Matagorda Bay with 125 mph winds, according to Space City Weather.
"I'm not saying the Atlantic won't see a hurricane before Thursday, September 17, 2026, but I am saying it is unlikely," Berger wrote. "I'll go ahead and knock on some wood just in case."
El Niño keeping storms at bay
The quiet stretch comes down to El Niño. The climate pattern creates strong upper-level wind shear across the Caribbean and the Atlantic's main development region, tearing apart tropical systems before they can strengthen, Naples Daily News reported.
Fox Weather reported that forecasts indicate a "super El Niño" may be developing, potentially one of the strongest on record.
Colorado State University meteorologist Philip Klotzbach posted Thursday, Sept. 3, that wind shear in the western tropical Atlantic and Caribbean "continues to shatter previous records," according to Naples Daily News. Only seven seasons in the satellite era, since 1966, have reached September without an Atlantic hurricane.
A Saharan dust plume moving off Africa during the week of Sept. 8 added another layer of suppression, Berger wrote.
Five storms, zero hurricanes
The season has produced five named tropical storms: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly and Edouard. None became hurricanes. Three of those five, Arthur, Bertha and Edouard, formed in the northern Gulf of Mexico, the only area where wind shear stayed weak enough for tropical development.
Clear Lake area residents felt Edouard's effects most recently. The storm made landfall near Johnson Bayou, Louisiana, at 2:20 p.m. CDT on Tuesday, Sept. 1, with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph, according to NWS Houston. Galveston County's Office of Emergency Management said Edouard's local impacts were expected to be limited primarily to periods of rain, with 3 to 5 inches possible.
Edouard's peak winds of 60 mph fell well short of hurricane strength.
What's ahead
The National Hurricane Center forecast no tropical development in the Atlantic over the next seven days as of Sept. 8. Colorado State University's two-week forecast, issued Wednesday, Sept. 2, said it was "strongly favoring below-normal activity" through Sept. 15, finding "very little signal for any potential TC development."
Thursday, Sept. 10, marks the statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, according to the National Hurricane Center. NOAA predicted in May the first below-average season since 2015, forecasting 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes and 1 to 3 major hurricanes.
National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said in May, when NOAA issued its seasonal forecast, that preparing before a storm threatens is essential. Berger noted that any storm forming before roughly Sept. 18 would likely be "home-grown," developing near the United States rather than in the deep Atlantic.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs through Nov. 30.
