Clear Lake and all of Galveston County have slipped back into moderate drought after a dry August, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Eric Berger, meteorologist and author at Webster-based Space City Weather, reported Tuesday, Sept. 22, that Houston's precipitation pattern shifted over the summer. Widespread showers in June and most of July gave way to very dry conditions in August. Some parts of the Houston region picked up rain in September, but the Clear Lake area did not see enough to avoid drought status.

Relief is not expected through the weekend. Berger wrote that the weekend of Sept. 26–27 will be sunny and hot, with highs in the low- to mid-90s and rain chances near zero.

The outlook improves after that.

Berger identified an increasingly strong signal in weather models that high pressure will ease away from the region next week, allowing moisture to return. In his Sept. 22 post, he pointed to the Tuesday-through-Thursday window of the following week as having a decent shot of rainfall, with the potential for a few inches.

A Wednesday, Sept. 23, update from Space City Weather refined the estimate to "probably in the ballpark of 1 to 3 inches" around Tuesday, Sept. 29, through Thursday, Oct. 1. An upper-level low pressure system is expected to break down the high pressure ridge that has kept skies clear and temperatures extreme.

Houston hit 99 degrees at George Bush Intercontinental Airport on Tuesday, Sept. 22, one degree short of the all-time record high for that date, according to the Wednesday update.

The incoming rain could also mark a turning point for temperatures. Berger's Tuesday post said increased cloud cover could push daytime highs into the 80s next week; his Wednesday update put the initial drop at around 90 degrees as the rain first arrives. A stronger front is expected to follow the rain, carrying what Space City Weather described as a decent chance of bringing the area its first nights in the 60s since late spring.

"I do feel pretty confident in saying that we should be done with this mid- to upper-90s malaise that has characterized much of September," Berger wrote Tuesday.

Space City Weather cautioned that the forecast carries uncertainty at this range, noting Wednesday, "I don't want to make any false promises."

A weak front expected Thursday, Sept. 24, may lower humidity slightly before the larger rain event arrives the following week.